Sunday, December 13, 2009

A Sketchy Start To December

I've put in some moderate volume so far this month, and it's been fairly negative in terms of results. Currently playing 95% 100NL, 1% 200NL, and 4% 50NL I'm behind by about $500 cash, but I'm running $950 behind expected value.

What's Expected Value? EV in poker terms is how much of the pot equity is yours if luck didn't factor in. For example, if you're flipping a fair coin for $100 per flip, the EV of heads and tails is equal -- $50 per flip. Half the time you should win, half the time you should lose. SHOULD. It doesn't mean the coin can't flip heads 20 times in a row, just that it's pretty unlikely to happen.

Anyway, I'm not complaining about the EV, it sucks but things tend to even themselves out eventually -- I'm really only behind on my current database in EV by a little bit overall -- meaning I won more than my share for a time.

Let's talk about poker tournaments. Today around 1pm I decided to play the Mini FTOPS event at Full Tilt. It was a $24+2 buy-in but I just burnt some full tilt points because I frankly can't see what else to use them for in the store that I give a poop about.

Obviously I play Small Stakes NL cash games most of my time. Honestly, the opponents for the most part are NOT monkeys anymore. This Mini FTOPS event... can't say the same. Lots of fish without a fold button meaning you have to play for showdowns and can't c-bet and bluff them at all. God how I wish they'd come play at my tables at cash. Last time I played at PartyPoker it was the same thing. The fish may be dying at cash but they're alive and well in tournaments.

I actually ran fairly deep in the FTOPS, and here were my notable arr-ins and stack movement:

66 < A4 preflop for $16k pot with blinds at 200/400
AA > KK for $35k pot on a monotone (my suit) flop at 300/600
QQ > JJ preflop for $32k pot at 300/600/50

Down to 20k after doubling a shortstack with 1k/2k/250 blinds
push/fold pre with a good run of cards, took some opens with 3-bets with moderate hands
Up to 64k at 1200/2400/300
Up to 79k at 1200/2400/300
up to 96k at 1200/2400/300 (running over the opponents) -- avg stack 90k with 800ish to go
KK < AA preflop, and I'm TOAST. Shit. I somehow knew he had AA and obviously can't fold KK preflop.

lol donkaments. 4 hours for $65 in profit or some shit, got 2 knockout bounties for $4 each woo. Would I do it again on a quiet sunday? Hell yes. The competition is really soft and 1st place in this tourney was $46k.

I really thought I was going to run deep there... was thinking how awesome it would be to win $46k for zero entry fee... *sigh*.

Anyway, that's about it... hope I run better the rest of december to close the year on a high note. :)

Friday, December 04, 2009

Hitler Rant on Bad Beats

If you follow online poker at all, watch this, it's worth it. If you don't, you won't get the joke so save the 4 minutes.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

November Online Poker Results

It's that time of the month again fellers. November was an odd one. I put in high volume for the first few days of the month, then had life get in the way for most of the month, and finished with more volume.

Results wise I started strong, lost it back quickly then hobbled to basically break even running a few hundred behind my expected value -- short sample though of course. Below is the graph from the month including my all-in EV, showdown/nonshowdown winnings and rakeback.



Notably my "red line" is very negative this month, which could be explained by my playing a few thousand 50 NLHE Heads Up hands. I'm not winning as much as I should be without showdown, which means I'm getting run over probably. Ugly ugly line this month.

As you can see, I made a massive $117 for the month, and about $450 including rakeback. Waste O' time considering the daily swings were $500 on a few days but that's the game.