Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Explaining Variance

Variance as referred to be a poker player means the happenings in the game which are "swingy". If you've ever flipped a coin and had it come up heads 5 times in a row, that's a bit of variance from the expected result of heads, tails, heads, tails. Its a varied result from a mathematical expectation.

Gamblers, particular poker players talk about swings -- especially those crazy shorthanded limit players, jesus i'd tilt off a boatload of money at that game given the suckouts. Back to my point, when I referred to a bit of variance in my last post, it's just meant to say that I did not win my hands as often as I would expect to in the short term. This month has been very swingy for me in poker, and i've played a lot of it since getting back from vacation (a lot for me, not a lot for some of these people). I was down 200, up 300, now i'm up 50. It's basically breakeven poker and my graph of results is really, really depressing. I'm just getting some really good second best hands in the last few days and it hurts the growth into higher limits.

Speaking of higher limits, I played a few more hands of 100NL yesterday and had my KK cracked by a set of 5's where he called my re-raise PF to $16. It blows stacking off a hundo. Being out of position blows too.

I've got some money in bad lately (it happens), but got far more of it in good. I'm just pissed that i've got so much more work to do before moving up again because of this crap. Going to look at my stats at the end of the month to see where i'm oozing money, i'm guessing its in the big pairs KK/AA department.

That's it for now, hope you learned something Harry. :)

1 comment:

Harris said...

So you describe variance as a coin being flipped and landing on head 5 times that would be a variance of what you would expect to happen. So you play golf go home play poker, you do that 5 days in a row. I didn't expect you not to do that. There is no variance.